KYIV, Ukraine – Ukrainian forces are working to secure their recent territorial gains in Russia, following a successful offensive that has captured hundreds of Russian soldiers. This bold incursion, now in its second week, has significantly boosted Ukrainian morale and dealt a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions.
The offensive has made substantial progress in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces advancing into key areas such as Sudzha, Guyevo, and Goncharovka. Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group aligned with the defense ministry, confirmed these advances. Ukrainian soldiers were filmed removing the Russian flag from an administrative building in Guyevo, symbolizing their control over the area.
Ukraine has also captured a significant number of Russian soldiers, as evidenced by videos published by military brigades and verified by independent sources. These prisoners of war could be exchanged for Ukrainian troops held by Russia, following a series of similar swaps.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to the Ukrainian units involved, stating, “Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home.” This incursion is seen as a strategic move to strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential negotiations with Russia.
Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have launched air strikes, drone attacks, and artillery fire to halt Ukrainian advances. The ministry also stated it had repelled a Ukrainian attack east of Sudzha and “cleared” a Ukrainian-occupied village, though these claims could not be independently verified.
Moscow confirmed ongoing artillery strikes on military targets in Ukraine to prevent further deployments. Russia claims over 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died during the incursion, despite initially reporting half that number.
Russian bloggers posted videos on Telegram showing Russian forces using first-person view (FPV) drones armed with explosives against Ukrainian armored vehicles and troop carriers. One video depicted Russian troops celebrating the capture of a Ukrainian BTR-4 infantry fighting vehicle.
Ukraine’s top general reported that the territory held by Ukrainian troops has expanded to 1,000 sq km. Deep State confirmed 800 sq km under Ukrainian control, with an additional 230 sq km pending verification.
A senior Russian military officer claimed, without evidence, that Moscow’s forces were retaking areas seized by Ukraine. Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces unit from Chechnya, stated that the situation in the Kursk region was under control.
The challenge for Ukrainian leaders is now to decide whether to press on or hold the territory, considering the risks and resources needed on the eastern front. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defense minister and chair of the Centre for Defence Strategies, suggested that Ukraine should either advance further or hold the territory, depending on the evaluated risks.
Kyiv’s operation marks an unprecedented move in the decade-long conflict with Russia, representing the largest foreign incursion into Russia since World War II. The scale of Russia’s security failure has prompted candid discussions in Moscow, with the governor of Kursk region reporting to Putin that Ukraine now controls 28 settlements.
Western military aid has been flowing more steadily to Ukrainian units since a $60bn package was approved by the US Congress in April. However, Ukraine’s army remains outgunned and outmanned by Russia.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have made steady gains, pressing close to the garrison city of Pokrovsk and strategic towns like Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Niu-York. Deep State’s map of the front line showed much of Niu-York under Russian control on Tuesday.
In the Donetsk region, the Kursk fight has been met with mixed reactions. While some are elated, others express frustration over the ongoing conflict. Soldiers on the front line hope the operation will force Moscow to divert resources from its offensive in the Donetsk region to Kursk.
Russia has reportedly moved some forces from occupied southern Ukraine, designating its response as a “counter-terrorist operation” led by the FSB and Rosgvardia national guard. State media published videos of heavy armor being shipped to Kursk, though it does not appear to have been taken from eastern Ukraine.
Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, suggested that Russia might either stabilize the front in Kursk or attempt to recover all lost territories, potentially leading to a major redeployment of troops from the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian officials and experts argue that it is too soon to pull out of Kursk. Zagorodnyuk expects Ukrainian forces to press deeper into Russia but predicts a positional phase where Kyiv will consider which areas can be best defended.
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