Belarus, which has been seeking closer economic ties with China, is often portrayed as a loyal ally of Russia even though its strongman president, the 70-year-old Alexander Lukashenko, has a history of fluctuating relations with the Kremlin, including feuds with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
These days, Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, seems increasingly focused on dealings with China, hardly missing an opportunity to praise the country and its leadership.
As far back as in 2016, Lukashenko declared in a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Belarus would be “a reliable friend of China forever”. In April 2019, he told Xi that Beijing “can always count on our support in any area”. In the years since, Lukashenko has referred to the friendship as “ironclad” and publicly supported China’s global initiatives. Why the rhetoric?
It is no secret Lukashenko and Putin do not particularly like each other. Lukashenko is believed to have had much better relations with the late Russian leader Boris Yeltsin. In 2020, just days before his controversial election, Lukashenko said in an interview that Yeltsin deeply regretted choosing Putin as his successor. This came after Belarus caught what Lukashenko said were Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group planning a terrorist attack.
Previously, in 2017 and 2018, amid oil and gas disputes between Minsk and Moscow, Lukashenko attempted to normalise relations with the European Union. That was part of his tactic of threatening Moscow with closer ties with the West unless Belarus received cheaper energy. It proved successful. To this day, the Kremlin provides cheap oil and natural gas to its nominal ally, and keeps the Russian market open for Belarusian goods.
But with Russia facing economic hardship – high inflation has become the norm and Russian officials reportedly warn that the era of cheap electricity has ended – it is questionable how long Moscow can subsidise the Belarus economy.
