Former US president Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape the Philippines’ defence strategy, with experts debating whether his robust approach would strengthen Manila’s security ties with Washington or push it into a risky stand-off with Beijing in the contested South China Sea.
Alan Chong, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, predicted that Trump would potentially play “hardball with China” and prioritise the US economy after his return.
“If Beijing does not play ball, Trump will arm the Philippines for a confrontation in the South China Sea,” Chong told This Week in Asia.
Trump, who initiated a trade war with China during his first term, has said his administration would raise tariffs to 60 per cent on all Chinese imports, alongside a blanket 10 or 20 per cent tariff on all foreign goods entering the US.
China claims most of the South China Sea, with the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam also contesting sovereignty over the disputed waterways. An international tribunal in 2016 dismissed China’s expansive claims, a ruling Beijing has consistently rejected.
Beijing has been accused of employing aggressive tactics against Philippine ships in the South China Sea previously, such as firing water cannons and using high-intensity lasers, in a bid to assert its claims.
